The Hindus of Delhi will not celebrate Diwali this year, at
least not with the usual fervour associated with the festival of lights and
crackers, thanks to an ill-conceived judgement by the Supreme Court.
The ban was ordered on November 11, 2016 in response to a
petition filed by three children stating that bursting of crackers on a single
night – that is on the Diwali night – increased the suspended particulate
matter in the air threefold and that “residents and children [were] feeling
breathless and vulnerable to asthmatic attacks” in the air following the
bursting of crackers on Diwali. Obviously agreeing with the petitioners, the Supreme
Court “observed that the direct and immediate cause of the spike in air pollution during this time is because of burning ofcrackers for Deepavali.”
In trying to understand the Hon’ble Court’s judgement it is
necessary to understand
1. Whether there is a
causal relationship between bursting of crackers on a single night – that is on
the Diwali night – and increase in particulate matter in the air
2. Whether there is a
causal relationship between increase in particulate matter in the air and
respiratory diseases as is being made out to be
In order to answer our first question, let us
turn to Inside Story -China's pollution dilemma originally published on the Al
Jazeera website on December 23, 2015. It features a panel discussion on the
problem of air pollution in China. A report by Adrian
Brown preceded the panel discussion moderated by Kamahl Santamaria. The panelists were Einar Tangen, (Political
and economic affairs analyst advising the Chinese government), Steve Tsang (Senior
fellow at the China Policy Institute at the University of Nottingham, UK) and Tamara
Savelyeva (Professor at the Hong Kong Institute of Education).
Here is the gist
of the panel discussion:
Air pollution contributes to 17% of all deaths in China; 90% of cities failed to meet national air quality standards. Air pollution accounted for 1.6 million deaths in a single year. This means 4400 people die every day. The levels of air pollution are seven times the maximum exposure recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
The government is forced to close schools, colleges and factories in order to protect people from pollution on the days on which there is a spike in the particulate matter in the air.
In the words of Einar Tangen, “China polluted its way to success!” The major contributing factors of the air pollution were the coal and steel industries. Attempts to transit from coal as the energy producer have been on but it is a difficult trade-off in view of the highly labour-intensive nature of the industry. The economic costs of air pollution are already telling on the economy. The nation can be said to have reached its threshold limit.
The government is forced to close schools, colleges and factories in order to protect people from pollution on the days on which there is a spike in the particulate matter in the air.
In the words of Einar Tangen, “China polluted its way to success!” The major contributing factors of the air pollution were the coal and steel industries. Attempts to transit from coal as the energy producer have been on but it is a difficult trade-off in view of the highly labour-intensive nature of the industry. The economic costs of air pollution are already telling on the economy. The nation can be said to have reached its threshold limit.
[By the by the YouTube video is worth watching to understand how
panel discussions are conducted on international television. There is no
screaming; no talking over each other and the presenter let everyone talk!]
By no stretch of imagination could one ascribe the problem of air
pollution in China to firecrackers or Diwali. The problem therefore should lie
elsewhere. Here is a snapshot of a news report published in 2015 in Mail Today, according to which there
are 110,000 smoke emitting cottage industries in Delhi.
What causes pollution then? An IIT study report of 2013-14 published in Bloomberg identified industry, vehicular pollution, power plants and cottage industries as the main pollutants.
What causes pollution then? An IIT study report of 2013-14 published in Bloomberg identified industry, vehicular pollution, power plants and cottage industries as the main pollutants.
Now to the
second question: several medical experts have appeared in television debates (as they did last year too), to testify that increased air pollution due to bursting of crackers on the one night of Diwali indeed causes respiratory
diseases. As experts they are entitled to their individual
opinions on the subject. As experts in a scientific discipline, they would also
agree that voicing opinions in public fora without adequate studies is not
exactly a scientific way of voicing opinions. For here is an excerpt from a
scientific study on the subject which appeared in Lung India, a specialist
magazine on the subject of lung diseases (with a formidable line-up of editors) intended not for laymen but for
medical specialists in the subject:
An
extensive Medline search revealed that a strong evidence of the impact of
fireworks on respiratory health is lacking in susceptible as well as healthy
individuals with no formal studies on COPD or asthma, other than a few case
reports in the latter
Here are a few noteworthy excerpts from the article which definitely warrant
serious scrutiny, especially in view of, not conclusive proof but scientific “speculation” about a few hours on one night of fireworks causing
serious health problems:
Fireworks and asthma Few
investigators have identified the association between asthma and exposure to
fireworks.
Fireworks and COPD We could
not find any publications identifying an association between COPD and firework
exposure.
An association
between repeated exposure to firework emissions and respiratory symptoms has
not been definitely identified.
One can argue
that typical exposure to such pollutants is limited, as assessed by Singh et al., ranging from a few hours to a
few days, depending on the duration of the firework festival, thus probably
only causing minimal exposure. Also, fireworks are often let off following sunset
when most people would go indoors to sleep after seeing the show, hence
limiting exposure time to the ambient air pollutants.
There is limited
literature describing the physical characteristics of firework particles
themselves including size distribution, number concentrations, modal characteristics
as well as particle density
Following a
thorough review of the literature available, further studies are necessary to
consolidate current evidence and speculation.
(Emphasis added.)
Is
everyone, the “children”, the activists and the Supreme Court oblivious of the
elephant in the room and barking the wrong tree?
Or is there any other ulterior motive for the “activists” which
the Hon’ble Supreme Court, to give it the benefit of doubt, did not sense?