Tuesday, November 10, 2015


Followers of VOXINDICA are aware that the blog analysed various elections in the past. They include Delhi, Gujarat, Jammu & Kashmir and Karnataka (in alphabetical, not chronological order), and the national election of 2014.  Each of these elections had a different context which was the reason why they were chosen for analyses. One or two articles broached the application of management and marketing principles and social psychology to electoral politics.

The following marketing management principles (listed after the introductory part) are well-known, at least for students and practitioners of marketing management. However they can be applied to politics as well, for after all, politics is very similar to branding. American politicians have long recognised it; therefore they rely on branding agencies, well, to build political brands. There is a saying that the American presidential election strategies are designed not in the political party offices but in Madison Avenue where America’s largest advertising agencies are located. Indian political parties too have caught up with the trend and we have seen the application of branding and marketing principles to electoral battles in the last decade or so. Every political party or candidate is akin to a brand. The broad principles are expanded here to draw lessons from the Delhi and Bihar elections.

In his seminal work Competitive Strategy (1980) Michael Porter identified five forces, - popularly known as the ‘five forces theory- which impact businesses. The five forces Porter identified are the bargaining power of suppliers, the bargaining power of buyers, the threat of substitutes, the threat of new entrants and competitive rivalry among existing players. Porter theorised three generic strategies to counter them. They are cost leadership, differentiation and niche strategies. To a large extent the five forces and the generic strategies are relevant and applicable to the world of politics too.

Applied to electoral politics some of the five forces are easily recognised: the bargaining power of the buyers is the voter power. One political party can always substitute the other if they have similar political ideologies. Tamil Nadu is a case in point. Both the DMK and its offshoot AIADMK have similar political ideologies. There is nothing much to choose between the two.

Quite often, new political entities have emerged out of realignment or fragmentation of the earlier national players, the Congress and the BJP. The examples are the many regional political parties which identify themselves based on regional aspirations. They are in addition to the two already mentioned, the more recent Aam Admi Party (AAP); the Biju Janata Dal (BJD); the Janata Dal United (JDU), the Nationalist Congress Party NCP); the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD); the Shiv Sena (SS); the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS); the Telugu Desam (TDP) and the Trinamul Congress (TC).

The bargaining power of suppliers comes into play when political parties have to form alliances. We have seen in the past how political parties demanded money-spinning infra-structure portfolios or immunity from corruption cases to join a coalition. The rivalry among the existing players needs no elaboration.

As for the generic strategies the Congress party has always adopted the cost leadership principle. In marketing it means offering a product at the cheapest possible price. In politics it translates as offering everything to everybody. The philosophy is summed up in Indira Gandhi’s ‘garibi hatao’ slogan. In Max Weber’s terminology this is also known as transactional leadership. The late Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy successfully employed the transactional leadership principle to capture power by offering something to every section of society.

In contrast, the BJP adopted the differentiation strategy to begin with. Remember the ‘the party with a difference’ slogan. It offered corruption-free, development-oriented governance. Again to borrow from Weber what Narendra Modi offered was transformational leadership. In his earlier stint as chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu adopted the transformational leadership principle. Though successive defeats at the hands of YSR seemed to have mellowed him a bit he has a godsend opportunity after the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh. In building the nascent state, he came back into his element of transformational leadership.

Transactional leadership obtains immediate dividends but is difficult to sustain in the long run. What will Jayalalitha offer in the next election after all the sewing machines, pressure cookers, grinders, laptops and all the other freebies she and her rival DMK gave away already? How will K. Chandrasekhara Rao fulfil his promise of two bedroom flats for all poor people and three acres of land for the landless farm labour? There is a limit to the state’s ability to offer freebies. ‘Robbing Peter to pay Paul’ can work only so far! Foreign-funded NGOs and sundry social activist groups try their best to thwart generation of wealth from the nation’s natural resources. Arundhati Roy would rather the Comrades of Dantewada sleep under the stars and shit under the trees rather than allowing governments to exploit the mineral wealth that lies buried under the earth in the forests.

On the other hand, transformational leadership is slow to yield dividends but is good for the nation in the long run. A transformational leader enunciates an ideal vision which his followers identify with and work for its achievement. As long as Narendra Modi governed Gujarat he adopted the transformational leadership principle. After becoming the prime minister, though he has been projecting a transformational vision (development-based economy, skill development, India as world guru, make in India, swatch Bharat, give up LPG subsidy et al) he somewhat diluted it by offering special packages for various states.

The Siromani Akali Dal (SAD), the AIMIM and the IUML are political parties formed based on religious ideologies. The may be described as niche players. The AAP debuted as a niche player claiming to champion the anti-corruption cause but seems to have somewhat lost the plot subsequently. There are quite a few other regional parties which have their influence limited to small niches.

And now we come to the crucial question of ‘what went wrong with the Delhi and Bihar elections?’ when viewed in terms of the application of marketing principles.


In both Delhi and Bihar the party overstretched brand Modi. The voter recognised brand Modi but was unable to understand how it satisfies his/her needs.

Remember the first principle of branding is identifying and satisfying apparent or latent consumer needs. In 1983 when N. T. Rama Rao formed the Telugu Desam party, the electorate was vexed with the centralised Congress governance (no Congress CM was allowed to finish his full term till then) and corruption. There was a political vacuum, which meant there was an unsatisfied consumer need. Chiranjivi could not replicate 1983 when he formed his Praja Rajyam in 2008, as there was no unsatisfied need when he launched his party. The electorate was satisfied with YSR. In the 2009 elections, Chiranjivi had to satisfy himself with just 18 seats in the 294-seat assembly, and in fact lost one of the two seats he contested!

In Delhi and in Bihar the electorate was unable to see a local structure which would translate Narendra Modi’s transformational vision  - even if they understood it - into action.


The second but most important principle of branding is it offers, nay it is, a promise. Beyond satisfying consumer needs, a brand promises to deliver value. If a brand does not deliver on a promise, no amount of packaging or marketing will help sell it. It has been sixteen months since the national electorate voted brand Modi to power. Brand Modi has many achievements: improving India’s image internationally; attracting foreign investments; foreign policy; revamping railways et al but they are all intangibles. Any achievement in bringing down corruption is also an intangible - at least in the short run - for the ordinary voter. It takes time for the effect to seep in.

What the voter hasn’t seen is the reversing of inflation, creation of jobs and the lofty promise of bringing back black money. The ordinary voter can neither understand nor care why the government is unable to deliver on the promises. He/she wants delivery. A voter who has to shell out Rs 180 – 200 for a kilo of tur dal does not understand highfalutin economic principles. World Bank classifications or elevation in IIP and GDP metrics do not fill the belly!

The BJP government also seems to be helpless in pursuing corruption cases against the previous government. Why could it not form special courts and transfer all corruption cases to it. The government, it appears, is handicapped by the ‘insidious networks’ of bureaucracy, judiciary and the media which the previous Congress government formed, cultivated, nurtured and left in place. The new government should have used its think tanks to find ways and means to dismantle the ‘insidious networks’. Alas, it does not seem to have a clue as to how to go about it. The ordinary voter neither understands nor cares why the government is handicapped but expects delivery on the promises of corruption and black money.

A prominent media company has been accused of indulging in money-laundering in collusion with some Congress politicians. Another media company which finished the career of a BJP president and all but finished a popular leader of an alliance partner has been accused of making tons of money out of activities not usually associated with media companies. The BJP government should have speed-tracked cases against these companies and made an example out of them. Both Indira Gandhi and her daughter-in-law Sonia Gandhi have effectively used the carrot and stick policy to make the media fall in line. Despite public posturing about freedom of expression the media both fears and respects them.


Every brand feature should relate to a benefit. The benefit defers from consumer to consumer. For a consumer who buys a Audi or a Bentley the benefit he seeks is not fuel economy. The benefit he seeks is the recognition that he made it big in life. For him owning a Audi or a Bentley is a status symbol. On the other hand for a consumer who buys a Hyundai i10, the benefits he seeks are comfort (seating, air-conditioning), speed manoeuvrability and economy. A consumer who buys an entry level car like Maruti Alto seeks only economy. Of course he aspires to ascend the ladder and be able to buy higher level cars.

A consumer would be more interested in knowing the better qualities of a brand he is buying rather than the poor qualities of a competing brand. Comparison with other brands may be necessary but beyond a point it would be counterproductive. Why do people watch television advertisements of brands they already own? The reason is they want to reassure themselves that their buying decision was right.

Instead of running down the JD (U) and the RJD, the BJP could have paraded the achievements of its own governments in Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Chief Ministers of these states could have addressed public meetings and enumerated their success stories. It would have reassured the Delhi or Bihar voters what the party could deliver. Why the BJP did not think of this is quite frankly inexplicable.


‘Positioning’ is a key concept in marketing. It does not exist in the market place; it does not exist even in the brand. It exists in the consumer’s mind. It is a slot in the consumer’s mind that the marketer seeks to own. In the process a marketer may have to sacrifice a part of the market to obtain a larger share of the targeted consumer’s mindshare. As an example take the case of the beauty soap, Lux. For several decades (the soap is actually 90 years old), it has been marketed as a soap that would make women look beautiful by featuring popular female film stars in its advertisement campaigns. This means the company was ready to sacrifice the market segments of men, old women and children to capture as much of the ‘young women market’ as possible. A successful marketer knows that his brand cannot be everything to everybody.

Indira Gandhi was once reported to have said she did not have to bother about the middle class voters as they do not go and vote in numbers. Her market was the poor voter; therefore she positioned her party as a party for the poor. Hence the ‘garibi hatao’ slogan! But the market is dynamic. There has been an increasing upward mobility in the society since Indira’s time. The middle class voter today is not as apathetic as in the 60s and 70s. He wants a say in governance. It was into this aspirational class that Narendra Modi was able to successfully tap in Gujarat since 2002 and nationally in 2014.

However, ‘positioning’ can’t be frequently changed. It is for the long haul. It has to be constantly claimed and the claim reinforced. BJP has a core constituency. The party should not let it go. It should retain it while trying to gain a share of the rest of the market.  


In a successful company everyone from the managing director down to the girl sitting at the telephone switchboard should be committed to brand building. There is a simple reason for this. The day to day consumer comes into contact with the telephone operator, the service mechanic and other low level employees but rarely with the managing director. It is they, who should impress, win over and reassure the consumer. They all should speak in the same language to convey the company’s commitment to delivering brand value. It can’t be achieved by speaking in multiple voices.

It was probably the low level BJP politicians who did the party in. Congress and other secular-labelled parties do pretty much what they want while mouthing platitudes about the idea of India. By talking in multiple voices the low level BJP politicians have created a negative buzz which the competition has successfully exploited to its advantage. The low level BJP politicians should take a leaf out of Congress book. They could pursue their Hindutwa agenda without making a song and dance about it.


As has been mentioned earlier the voter in Delhi and Bihar did not understand who would deliver the brand promise if they voted the BJP to power. The BJP did the mistake of parachuting Kiran Bedi as the chief ministerial candidate in the eleventh hour, ignoring workers who had toiled for the party for decades. It antagonised its cadres while not impressing the voter.

Could the BJP not have projected Sushil Modi as the chief ministerial candidate in Bihar? He matches Nitish Kumar’s image in being soft-spoken, in being low profile and has an impeccable record of delivering as finance minister. Britain has the tradition of the principal opposition putting in place shadow cabinets. It is like target-marking in rugby football games. There may be a worthwhile lesson for Indian political parties in it. 

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Random reflections on the Delhi election 2015

There are lessons to be learnt from every election. What of the February 7 Delhi election? There have been non-stop dissections and analyses on ‘what, why and how’ it happened in what is called the ‘mainstream media’ since yesterday morning. The analysts’ spiels, informed by personal and political predilections, were marshalled over time, tested cautiously after the exit polls and screamed in a crescendo of rising pitch as the results appeared. The underlying theme of the analyses ran true to form – reflecting their pathological hatred for Modi, the BJP and Hindutwa. The adage ‘an enemy’s enemy is my friend!’ couldn’t be more truly applied to any other case than to their approach to Mr. Narendra Modi. The difference this time is the willy-nilly contribution of the subject (the BJP or sections of it) itself to its own torment.

The reasons too have been thrashed threadbare and there is no need to go into them. But some arguments are incongruous. If the voter couldn’t care less whether Arvind Kejriwal flies economy class or business class or even in a chartered jet, would he be put off by a suit worn by Narendra Modi?

If the voter voted for the BJP, ‘he inexplicably fell prey to the machinations of the Hindutwa forces’; if the voter votes out the BJP, ‘he voted wisely to defeat communal forces’. If Baba Ramdev canvasses for votes, ‘the BJP is communalising the election’. If a Fr. Frazer Mascarenhas or a Imam Bukhari issues a fatwa calling for the defeat of the BJP it is ‘a valourous attempt to defeat communal forces’. Don’t they have freedom of speech?

There however appear to be two key determinants in this election that the pundits either did not notice or did not articulate because it is politically incorrect to do so. If they did, it would not be possible to sing paeans to the ‘sagacity of the ordinary Indian voter’ and ‘the triumph of Indian democracy’ in the same breath.

The two factors are apathy towards corruption and a penchant for freebies, which are interlinked. It is quite simple. Why should the voter bother whether a leader travels economy class or business class or uses the executive jet provided by a businessman whom he bashes in carefully choreographed press briefings? All he is interested in is the promise of free electricity, free water and if possible a free colour television. Hasn’t it worked in Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh in the past? There may be long power outages in the hinterland of Andhra Pradesh but it affects only someone who has an air-conditioner at home or someone who runs a factory. Colour televisions given away in Tamil Nadu may have only ornamental value (because of power outages in rural areas) but recipients can always sell them in second hand shops and await the next election. Government employees in Uttar Pradesh may arrive late and exit early but it affects only those who have to visit these offices.

Any attempt to discipline this privileged class will adversely affect the electoral fortunes of those who attempt to discipline them as Jayalalithaa and Chandrababu Naidu found out in the past. They not only form a large electoral block which can make a difference to an election but more importantly they administer – and possibly can manipulate – electoral processes.

It takes time to fix an economy mired in inefficiency and an administration steeped in corruption. It takes time to put in place basic infrastructure – like electricity, roads and water, and contain inflation. It is not possible to distribute wealth without first generating it. 

But these are concepts the ordinary voter neither cares nor understands. Why should he? For him subsistence today is more important than a vague promise of tomorrow. He is really not bothered whether a leader lives in a large villa or a 200-crore palatial bungalow. Let a neta embezzle 1000 crores or even 10000 crores. It is a perquisite that comes with the profession! The ordinary voter is neither awed nor shocked by the ostentation or the vulgarity of greed in Delhi where there is a millionaire under every brick and where Audis and Bentleys could be seen crawling like ants at traffic intersections. The poor man would be happy to get the little trinket that is promised to him. The poor man is really not bothered whether AAP has received huge moneies from shell companies whose address does not exist as long as he gets a 500 or 1000-rupee note along with his voter slip. This time around the AAP is sitting pretty. It could claim credit for fulfilling its promises, if it does. It could also wring its hands and plead helplessness for failing to do so, pointing fingers at an un-cooperative centre. It is a win-win situation! For it the next battle is five years away. 

In 2009 someone pointed out that to fill all the promises made by the Congress party or its rival the TDP in Andhra Pradesh, the state budget would not be adequate. Competitive populism of offering freebies is like riding a tiger for the political parties. None dares desisting it, lest it gave an advantage to a competitor. Just as they all ganged up to resist being brought under the ambit of the RTI they would not come together to legislate to restrict electoral promises to what is feasible. What is the way forward? Why, judicial activism so abhorred by the cynical politicians. For that some public spirited citizen must approach the courts with a PIL. 

P.S.: A little bird in the social media forums says that a war chest of Rs 7-8000 crores was deployed to defeat the BJP in the election! There are also dark hints that certain interests inimical to India’s majority religion have unleashed an insidious campaign.  

Sunday, January 11, 2015

Charlie Hebdo Massacre & Indian Intellectual Chicanery

Two demons barged into an editorial conference at Charlie Hebdo in Paris and gunned down ten innocent, unsuspecting human beings. While making their retreat they gunned down two security officials. It was a barbaric, act. It was a heinous crime against humanity. Two of their possible accomplices shot dead a policewoman; held a Jewish grocery store hostage and killed four innocent shoppers. The macabre acts were not done in the heat of passion. They were cold-blooded and premeditated. They cannot be justified no matter what the provocation was. They should be condemned in no uncertain terms. There should be no equivocation. There can be no alibis and no ifs and buts.

The international media has condemned the Charlie Hebdo massacre in unequivocal terms. Any right thinking individual would do it. Any right thinking individual in the media or public life would do it, not just because those in public life or the media thrive on ‘freedom of expression’ but because it is the morally right thing to do.

In its editorial on January 7, The Guardian opined that the gruesome incident should be condemned without equivocation:

“Events in Paris today were beyond belief, indeed beyond words. The adjectives are simply not there to capture the horror unleashed by weapons of war in a civilian office. The hooded thugs trained their Kalashnikovs on free speech everywhere. If they are allowed to force a loss of nerve, conversation will become inhibited, and the liberty of thought itself will falter too. […] The targeting of a weekly editorial conference implies a ruthless concern to maximise the toll, pursued with chilling preparedness. […] All those who are appalled by these crimes must use the free speech which the killers sought to silence – and use it to condemn them, without equivocation.”

In its editorial, The Washington Post (January 7) lamented that:

“SEVERAL PUBLISHERS in Western countries have disgraced themselves in recent years with self-censorship to avoid being targeted by Islamic militants. […] Media in democratic nations must also consciously commit themselves to rejecting intimidation by Islamic extremists or any other movement that seeks to stifle free speech through violence. […] Such acts cannot be allowed to inspire more self-censorship – or restrict robust coverage and criticism of Islamic extremism.”

Post-revolution France is given to democratic freedoms (her motto is Liberty, Equality, Fraternity) like the ancient Indian empires such as Magadha, Maurya, Gupta and the more recent Vijayanagara et al. Unlike contemporary India where secularism is a political tool France is a truly secular republic which in its original sense means that the church and government should remain aloof from each other.

Charlie Hebdo has not singled out Islam in its criticism. Indeed, in the past it ridiculed the Catholic Church and the Pope himself. The role of the Indian media in condemning the massacre is none too edifying. It could not whole-heartedly condemn the massacre, consumed as it is by dhimmitude and probably chastened by past experience:

The 1986 attack on Deccan Herald, Bangalore  is a case in point. The provocation was the English translation of a short story the paper published  the original of which was published a decade earlier in a Kerala newspaper. In the violence that followed sixteen people were killed

The Bangalore offices of the The New Indian Express came under religious fire over an article it published on the New Year Day of 2000. It was written by senior journalist T. J. S. George who merely referenced a seven-hundred year old work of the Italian poet/philosopher Dante. He had to go underground for several days to escape the wrath of lynch mobs. 

According to a 2002 article in India Today ‘[a]ll four English newspapers in Bangalore [Deccan Herald, The Hindu, The New Indian Express and Times Of India] have had their offices vandalized by Muslim mobs on the flimsiest of pretexts’ at one time or other.

The violent reactions might not have been spontaneous. They might have been instigated by the zeitgeist of competitive secular assertiveness. (Here the word ‘secular’ must be understood in its skewed Indian sense.)

There are other violent instances perpetrated in the name of Islam such as the 2007 attack on Bangladeshi writer Tasliman Nasreen in Hyderabad.

In another gruesome instance T. J. Joseph, a Malayalam professor at Newman College in Thodupuzha, Kerala had his hand cut off as punishment for blasphemy. According some reports the punishment was awarded by a Taliban type kangaroo court (Darul Khada). Intimidated by the barbarity of the attack, rather than defending its professor, the college dismissed him from service. Four years later, daunted by the financial difficulties faced by the family, the professor’s wife who was an eye-witness to the macabre incident committed suicide by hanging herself.

Sadly, none of the Indian intellectuals – a tribe which rushes to petition all and sundry on behalf of convicted criminals – condemned the Paris massacre. Congress politicians, Mani Sankar Aiyer and Digvijay Singh justified the horrific incidents by finding alibis for the killer demons.

The Indian media tried another tack to soften the blow by finding false moral equivalence with some real or imagined protests by the majority religion. Invariably the protests against M. F. Hussain’s paintings (some of which desecrated Hindu goddesses) and the recent movie PK (which ridiculed Hindu god-men) were cited. None of these incidents are even remotely comparable with the Paris massacre in scale or gruesomeness. They were protests by a section of people who were offended. Equating the two is bizarre. It amounts to intellectual and political chicanery. If right to offend as a facet of free speech is an acceptable democratic right, so should be the right to protest.

The Indian media would do well to heed Eric Wenkle (Washington Post, January 7) when he said that it is inadvisable to describe Charlie Hebdo as a ‘satirical magazine’ or a weekly ‘satirical newspaper’ as it would be distracting from the magnitude of the crime committed on its editors:

“The magazine famously deploys satire and art to convey it message. Yet the label, at least on this occasion, carries a distracting and diversionary impact, which is somehow to distinguish or distance the work of Charlie Hebdo form the work of a regular old magazine or newspaper. For the purpose of what happened today, however there is no distinction: These were journalists who died because of what they produced.”

The Indian politicians who found alibis and the Indian media which drew false moral equivalence with past Hindu protests are – it appears – attempting to somehow diminish the diabolical nature of the massacre.

There would be no point in arguing that these were only ‘reactions brought about by provocations’ or in any way rationalizing the incident by trying to ‘put it in context’ as the politicians sought to do. As Padraig Reidy (The Telegraph, January 7) put it:

“Jihadists kill because that is what they do. It does not matter if you are a French cartoonist or a Yezidi child, or an aid worker or journalist: if you are not one of the chosen few, you are fair game. Provocation is merely an excuse used by bullies to justify their actions, while ensuring the world bows to their will.  

Saturday, January 10, 2015

Is astrology science or superstition?

On the eve of the May 2014 general elections, several Telugu news channels conducted what they call ‘panel discussions’ on astrology. It would be a mistake to expect ‘panel discussions’ on television to be objective in which the two sides of the issues under discussion are debated and rational conclusions arrived at. There is nothing rational or scientific about the debates. The subjects are selected based on their topicality to arouse viewer interest and are subject to two limitations: the channel’s political worldview and political correctness of the subject. Commercial interests of course determine a channel’s political worldview. As for political correctness even the most intrepid champions of freedom of speech tread cautiously as they are wary of backlash. If they are sure there would be no backlash, they would go overboard flogging the issue. There is no need to state the converse.

In the discussions on astrology, a couple of ‘not-very-articulate’ astrologers were pitted against rabble rousing rationalists and asked to predict the outcome of the elections. Despite protestations that Jyothisha predictions should not be made without sufficient data they were made to predict electoral outcomes, only to be jeered at. The anchors saw to it that the odd articulate astrologer did not get enough air time. He was simply shouted down in cacophony. The overt objection of the rationalists to astrology is that it is unscientific. If the objections were really ‘scientific’, they should have objected to such disciplines as craniometry (measurement of the head), phrenology (measurement of the skull) and nasal indices as predictors of race not to speak of the wholly unscientific Aryan Invasion Theory (AIT) - which was based not on historical or archaeological evidence but on comparative philology!

Their unstated, underlying objection could be that it is a Hindu discipline! The rationalists, with their pathological rather than logical hatred for everything Hindu forget that the original Jyothisha Vedänga concerned itself with astronomy, not astrology. The primary objective of this Vedic addendum (of the Rig and Yajur Vedas) was in the preparation of almanacs. The Indian almanac writers known as Siddhantis have been producing accurate almanacs for hundreds of years. The predictive discipline of astrology was a latter-day offshoot, just as psephology was an offshoot of political science which itself can hardly be described as science. The question that the faux rationalists should seriously introspect is why do they unquestioningly believe in psephology while they equally irrationally disbelieve in astrology.

What logical arguments do the rationalists offer in support of their contention that astrology is unscientific? Do they offer cogent reasoning and verifiable proofs? No, just an arrogant and unsubstantiated assertion that it is ‘impossible’! In the history of science, there are many examples which disprove the theory of ‘impossibility’ when subsequent discoveries upturned confident assertions. For example, in 1800, the English scientist John Dalton proposed that the atom was the smallest particle of elements and is indestructible.

Eysenck and Nias list several ‘impossibility’ theories which fell flat when subsequent discoveries disproved them.  (Eysenck, H. J., and and Nias, D.K.B., 1984. Astrology Science or Superstition? New York. Penguin Books). In 1933 Albert Einstein and Ernest Rutherford two of the world’s greatest physicists declared that the splitting of an atom could have no practical uses. Just twelve years later America dropped its bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Many countries in the world today harness the energy released by the splitting of an atom for peaceful uses.

Galileo, Kepler and Copernicus, all dismissed the theory that oceanic tides were caused by the moon as ‘astrological nonsense’. Johannes Muller, a very reputed nineteenth century physiologist and the author of an authoritative monograph on the subject, declared that measuring the speed of a nervous impulse would never be possible. Only three years later Helmholtz had measured it quite accurately.

What is science and what are the criteria that should be satisfied for a discipline to be declared scientific? Eysenck and Nias suggest three methodologies. Sir Francis Bacon’s induction method involves collection of facts and a theory hypothesized based on them. The Vienna School of Logical positivism suggests that a theory is proposed which is then verified or disproved by research. Then there is Sir Karl Popper’s argument that no theory can be finally verified as, even after a theory is verified umpteen times, one more experiment might still disprove it. The catch in this proposition is that Popper believes that ‘a theory is scientific if it is open, not to being proved true (which it never can) but to being proved wrong’. The authors argue that none of these methodologies were ever applied to astrology before disqualifying it as science.

A generally accepted criterion for a scientific theory is that its results should be replicable, i.e. it should yield predictable results and that the same results should be obtained in repeated experiments. Let us consider the example of modern medicine to validate this theory. Medical magazines regularly publish clinical trial reports of medical, surgical, radiological or other procedures used in the treatment of diseases. The reports very rarely report 100% cure rates with several trials reporting as low as 60-70% successes. This means the results of curative procedures used in modern medicine are not always replicable. In spite of this anomaly, none disputes that modern medicine is a scientific discipline. ‘Statistical significance’ (rather than absolute conformity) is an accepted criterion for validation of results in ‘double blind cross over’ clinical trials used to study the efficacy of medicines. A majority of rationalists appear to be unaware of such nuances in scientific criteria.

[As an aside it should be mentioned that one of the panelists representing the rationalists in the television debates mentioned earlier is a medical doctor, who could not have been unaware of such criteria. Therefore there is no rational explanation for his obdurate behavior in demanding absolute conformity as the scientific criterion.]

While Eysenck and Nias do not explicitly say that astrology is a scientific discipline, the do not dismiss it as superstition either. They argue that more data is needed to come to a definite conclusion and more research. They cite the work of Michel and Francoise Gaquelin to support their view. The Gaquelins were not astrologers but professional psychologists steeped in the ways of research. Their work in cosmobiology found a positive correlation between certain personality traits (which determine professional success) and planetary positions at the time of birth. Here is a brief account of the work of the Gaquelins that may be instructive:

*Eysenck and Nias describe them as ‘a rare combination, possessing both a detailed knowledge of astrology and a genuine scientific outlook based on a formal academic training.’

*The Gaquelins began their work by analyzing 576 members of the French Academy of Medicine, ‘who had achieved academic distinction by virtue of their research. They found that the doctors were all born when Mars or Saturn had just risen or just passed midheaven.

*In order to validate the theory, the Gaquelins tried to replicate their experiment with another group of 508 doctors with similar antecedents. The replication conformed with the original observation.

*Encouraged and intrigued by the results they extended the research to include other professionals in Belgium, Germany, Holland and Italy and reviewed 25,000 birth dates. When they contrasted 5,100 successful artists with 3,647 successful scientists they found quite interestingly that while the scientists were born when Saturn has just risen or was past midheaven, the artists tended to avoid being born under the planet.

*Similarly when they reviewed the birth charts of 3,438 military leaders, in 680 cases (against 590 sufficient for statistical significance) they found that Mars, considered the symbol of the god of war had risen or was past midheaven.

*In order to confirm the results the researchers studied control groups selected from the general population and concluded that the planetary positions as mentioned occurred only for the births of the famous and distinguished. The results seem to indicate that these planets are ‘related to destiny, success and good fortune’.

*A corollary to the observations already made was the predictability of certain character traits found in business leaders and successful sportspersons. It was found that those with birth times associated with Mars were seen to have greater determination and iron will.

*A study that reviewed the birth charts of 2,089 sportspersons, 1,409 actors and 3,647 scientists could predict personality factors like ‘extravert’, ‘introvert’, ‘unstable’ and ‘tough-minded’.

*The researchers made quite a few other interesting observations in their studies. It is not possible to include them all here for want of space. However one point deserves mention. Invariably the results the researches obtained conformed to naturally occurring births and not artificially induced ones. This means that human hand cannot design destiny. It has to be ordained by the Gods!

Eysenck and Nias conclude that “the time has come to state quite unequivocally that a new science is in process of being born.” 

It may be apt to remember what Bertrand Russel said on ‘the value of scepticism’: “when the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain”?

Tailpiece: The union HRD minister has as much right to visit an astrologer as the ‘goddess of small things’ and other secularists for hobnobbing with ISI front men like Gulam Nabi Fai. The former is her personal affair and does not harm the nation whereas the latter is detrimental to national interests. 

Monday, December 29, 2014

BJP: Opportunity cost of pawning political ideology in J & K

It is entirely possible that by the time this appears on the web the BJP would have sealed an alliance either with the PDP or the NC in Jammu and Kashmir. There are indications that this time the party would like to make a serious bid for power in the state. There is nothing exceptionable in that. Political parties contest elections to come to power.

Some of the party’s supporters in the social media and opinion-piece writers in online portals would like it ‘not to let go’ of the opportunity. But every opportunity has a cost. In economic theory this is called the opportunity cost. If the party has achieved a majority or was able to form a government with a ‘near majority’, the opportunity cost would have been payable at the end of the term based on its performance in office during the intervening period, which in the case of Jammu and Kashmir is six years.

The opportunity cost that a political party pays for immediate gains can have far reaching consequences, not all of them economic and not just for the party. The polity of the state and the nation, as stake holders will pay a cost too. The cost could be in terms of stalled development, internal disturbances or external threats. The state of Jammu and Kashmir had paid costs on all these accounts in the last sixty seven years. This was in addition to the cost that was paid in advance, a cost that was not payable and not even demanded. The additional cost paid in advance was the referral to the United Nations and Article 370 which excluded the state from the national mainstream. There is no need to go into Jawaharlal Nehru’s reasons or motivations on why he paid the two additional costs that were not even demanded, but they, it turns out are not one-time costs.

Opportunity cost relates to the cost one has to pay not only for availing an opportunity but also for foregoing an opportunity. Unfortunately the state of Jammu and Kashmir and the nation paid opportunity costs twice more in 1965 and 1971 for foregoing opportunities.

The ‘pro-power’ BJP supporters argue that this time around the BJP has achieved a quite impressive tally of 25 seats in the 87 member assembly and more importantly the largest vote share. The inherent anomaly in the first-past-the-post electoral system made political parties win fewer seats with larger vote percentages in the past too. It has to do with the concentration of winning seats in a region of the state. It has happened this time too with the BJP winning more seats in the Jammu region and may be losing some seats in the Srinagar Valley with slender margins.

The ‘pro-power’ BJP supporters’ argument runs like this: ‘if in an alternative scenario the non-BJP parties, the NC and the PDP were to come together to form the government, it would be un-representative of the Jammu region. Therefore the BJP should seek to be part of the power-centre, no matter what the cost.’

There were many instances in the past when governments at the centre and states were formed by parties which had no representation in several states or regions. For example in 1977 when the Janata Party came to power at the centre the Congress won 41 out of 42 seats in Andhra Pradesh and 26 out of 28 in Karnataka. In a further twist when Neelam Sanjeeva Reddy, the lone Janata Party MP in Andhra Pradesh was elected President even that seat went to the Congress. Closer in time, the present BJP government is in power with its party unrepresented in Kerala, has just one MP in Tamil Nadu and two in Bengal.

The second argument that is advanced is that letting go the opportunity now might result in losing ground to the other party which could utilize the opportunity to consolidate its political position. There were quite a few instances in the past when parties with ‘near majority’ adopted short cut methods to come to power by what the mainstream media would like to call ‘cobbling’ majorities. As a result of this, unstable regimes came to power in the past in states like Goa, Jharkand and Manipur but seldom saw out their full term in office.

BJP’s earlier experiences in Goa, Jharkand and Karnataka were none too comforting. By compromising on its core values for aligning with the Janata Dal (S) it not only wasted years in Karnataka but lost so much ground politically that it might be some time before it can even look at power in the state again. The argument that spurred the BJP then was that it was the first time the party would come to power in the South. It is similar to the one put forth now that it would gain foothold in the Muslim majority state of J & K, another first for BJP. Just as the perception of an unholy alliance between Congress and RJD in Bihar benefited the BJP, JD (U) alliance in 2006, the perception of an unholy alliance between the BJP and JD (S), the wrangling for the Chief Minister’s post by rotation and the even un-holier ‘fabricated majority’ with which Yeddyurappa ruled the state benefited the Congress in 2013.

What ideological compromises will the BJP have to make for a stab at power in J & K? The better option is to align with the National Conference and independents in which case the BJP, being the larger partner, would get the Chief Minister’s post. According to a report in Eenaadu, the quid pro quo being worked out between the BJP and the NC is the post of a Governor for Farooq Abdullah and a berth in the union cabinet for Omar Abdhullah through the Rajya Sabha route. Farooq of course would love the sinecure with all its pomp and ceremony sans responsibility. But the Hindus of J & K have painful memories of his reign when as the Chief Minister he abdicated responsibility and left them to the tender mercies of foreign and home-grown terrorists like Ali Shah Jelani and Yasin Malik. The half-a-million Hindus exiled then are still out in the cold.

The second option is to align with the PDP in which case it will have to settle to play second fiddle, perhaps for the post of a Deputy Chief Minister. As a precondition the PDP is demanding that the BJP should unambiguously declare that it would give up its stand on Article 370 forever and rescind the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA).

Agreeing to make Article 370 a permanent feature of the Constitution will foreclose any option a future central government may have of a rethink on it. This is similar to Jawaharlal Nehru’s folly of recognizing Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in 1954. No Indian government can retract it.   

Any move to rescind the AFSPA is fraught with serious practical consequences. The state has been the victim of terrorism exported by an enemy which vowed to bleed India through a thousand cuts. The unfortunate aspect is the terror machine has local support too.

Lastly the political ideology of the PDP is worrisome. It is a soft-line version of the more militant hard-line Hurriyat Conference. By aligning with such a party would not the BJP provide some legitimacy to it?

Would it not be therefore advisable for the BJP to sit out in the opposition; let the contradictions of the NC, PDP alliance play out and make a bid for power in 2020? The alliance is not likely to last the full term except in the highly unlikely event of the two merging. In the meantime it can play the role of a constructive opposition and keep the ruling clique in check.

Friday, December 26, 2014

P. V. Narasimha Rao and the elusive ‘Bharat Ratna’!

One may not agree with Lord Birkenhead’s view that ‘India is a land of mobs’ (Turning Points in History), but it is a land of inconsistencies. However he might not have been far off the mark when he said that ‘more than any country in the world single individuals of outstanding personality have been able temporarily to impose their will upon its destiny. A prime minister might be ranked third in India's official order of precedence but a Sonia Gandhi took precedence over the Prime Minister for ten years of its recent history. Her son-in-law did not need any official order of precedence to be treated as a ‘more equal’ citizen at airports and for Chief Ministers to kowtow before him. 

In the official order of precedence, No. 5A was inserted to accommodate the Deputy Prime Minister (probably after Vallabhai Patel became the first Deputy Prime Minister in 1950) and No. 7A after the institution of the Bharat Ratna in 1954. Article 18 (1) prohibits the use of Bharat Ratna as a title and therefore it cannot be used to prefix names, despite its general misuse. Its recipients are known as laureates.

As an aside it might be mentioned that Article 18 (2) prohibits Indian citizens from receiving ‘any title from any foreign state’. This precluded Sunil Gavaskar from accepting a British Knighthood but it did not prevent Sonia Gandhi from accepting the Belgian title, Order of Leopold.

Thus Bharat Ratna, which officially, cannot be flaunted as a title, accords its recipients precedence over Ambassadors, Chief Ministers and Governors of states who are, in that order ranked at No. 8.

Indians generally rue the omission of Mahatma Gandhi from the Nobel roster but there have been several notable omissions from the list of Bharat Ratna laureates. One of them was Sathya Sai Baba who was passed over, presumably because he was a Hindu god-man. One can say without any exaggeration, that Sathya Sai Baba’s service to humanity was unparalleled anywhere in the world. He established world-class schools, colleges, universities and hospitals all of which provide free services to the poor. Thousands of devotees who flock to his ashram daily are provided free food.

Under the ‘Sri Sathya Sai Drinking Water Supply Projects’ he constructed a drinking water project at a cost of US$ 63 million to supply drinking water to 1.2 million people in 750 villages of the arid Anantapur district of Andhra Pradesh. Similar projects supply drinking water to drought-prone villages in Mahabubanagar and Medak districts in Telangana, and Chennai. His super-specialty hospitals in Puttaparthi and Bengaluru conducted 24,473 free cardiac surgeries between November 1991 and October 2014.   

The other notable exception is that of former Prime Minister, P. V. Narasimha Rao. In order to understand the magnitude of his contribution to national revival the circumstances that prevailed when he became Prime Minister should be viewed in perspective. In point of fact, the year 1991 marks the beginning of a new epoch in independent India’s history. Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination brought to the nation’s helm a man who was preparing to quietly walking into the sunset. Narasimha Rao had been in politics since independence and served as Chief Minister, Union Home Minister, Foreign Minister and Defence Minister.

The economic crisis that came to a head that year was looming large on the horizon for years, fuelled by bureaucratic sloth, economic profligacy and political myopia. The economy was floundering on account of a depreciating rupee, billowing external debt and the resultant balance of payments crisis. The last straw on the proverbial camel’s back was the dramatically rising oil prices caused by the 1990-91 Gulf War. In order to cope with the crisis, the Chandra Sekhar government had to first sell twenty tons of gold (on which India had a repurchase option for six months) to raise $400 million in May that year and the successor government had to pledge a further forty-seven tons in July to raise a further $200 million loan. It was a national shame for a culture that treats gold as goddess Lakshmi to part with family gold for daily necessities. Dr. Manmohan Singh who became the finance minister in the successor government did not have the heart to use words like ‘sell’ or ‘pledge’ when he informed the parliament about the transactions in November 1991. Instead he said ‘sent abroad’ and ‘export’!

Following the crisis, the Narasimha Rao government initiated a series of steps to redeem the economy. The steps were a radical departure from the pernicious ‘Nehruvian socialism’ and set the nation on a track of progress. Those who do not want to credit the progress to Narasimha Rao, ascribe the economic policy to Manmohan Singh’s genius. Yes, the policy framework could be designed only by an economist with vision but it required Narasimha Rao’s sagacity to give political cover for its implementation. Second he needed the boldness first to sell the reforms to his own party which considered any departure from Nehru’s policies a sacrilege and then to the nation. The validity of the argument could be seen when we notice Manmoahn Singh could not continue with his reform policy when he himself was the Prime Minister for ten years.

While Narasimha Rao’s economic policies are willy-nilly acknowledged there are two other areas of governance in which he left an indelible stamp on the history of the nation.

The first was defeating the Khalistani movement, which ‘had consumed 21,469 lives before it was comprehensively defeated in 1993’. The principal protagonists of the operation were K. P. S. Gill who as Counter-terrorism Chief of Punjab mercilessly and relentless executed it, Beant Singh, who as Chief Minister of Punjab and Narasimha Rao as Prime Minister gave him political cover. Citing Julio Rebeiro, former Director General of Police, Punjab, Gill has this to say of the genesis of the problem:

I regard Operation Bluestar and the November 1984 massacres as the “two most important victories for the cause of ‘Khalistan’ … not won by the militants, but inflicted … upon the nation by its own government … These two events, in combination, gave a new lease of life to a movement which could easily have been contained in 1984 itself.” (Endgame in Punjab 1988-1993)

The political authors of Operation Bluestar and the 1984 Sikh genocide had both received the Bharat Ratna!

Gill elaborates why stern counter-terrorism measures were needed to eradicate the scourge:

The defeat of terrorism in Punjab, and I have said this before, was unambiguously the result of the counter-terrorist measures implemented in the state by the security forces. Moreover, the use of this coercive force was (and is) not just a necessary expedient, but a fundamental obligation and duty of constitutional government, and its neglect inflicts great and avoidable suffering on the innocent and law abiding. (Ibid.)

Lest anyone had any doubt about the political processes (pursued by the aforesaid political authors of Operation Bluestar and the 1984 Sikh genocide) having achieved the objective of annihilating terrorism in Punjab, Gill clarifies:

One of the dominant myths that these propagandists have tirelessly, and in some measure successfully, circulated is the idea that terrorism in Punjab was defeated not because, but in spite of the use of armed force against the militants. No evidence is ascribed to shore up this claim, but a variety of nebulous theories – essentially populist and politically correct slogans – are propounded regarding a ‘people’s victory’ or a ‘political solution’ that brought peace to the strife-torn province. (Ibid.)

Had the political master not had the vision to support the stern measures to put down terrorism with an iron hand we would have had another festering wound in the west in addition to the ones in the north and the east, the existence of which is undoubtedly owing to another Bharat Ratna! Who knows, had Narasimha Rao had another shot at power, he would have had some out of the box ideas to contain them!

Another bold step Narasimha Rao took was in the area of foreign affairs by establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel. Although India recognized Israel in September 1950 (a little over two years after its formation), it was not until February 1992 that full diplomatic relations were established. Considering the benefits a bilateral relationship with Israel could provide in the areas of agriculture, defence and counter-terrorism, this was inexplicable. The overt reason for India not establishing full diplomatic relations with Israel was that it would displease her Arab neighbours, but the unstated reason was to placate the Muslim vote bank in India. As by the time India established full diplomatic relations with Israel, the Narasimha Rao government was in office for just over eight months, the decision must be said to have been taken very quickly.